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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters Arisewin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters Arise

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Ankou · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
waveformn · 2 games
0%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
ani-san · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ani-san · 1 game
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
yowaai · 1 game
0%
Largo
Largooften banned
Ankou · 1 game
100%
Lina
Lina
Ethereal · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 1 game
100%

PuckChamp

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
gotthejuice · 6 games
17%
Techies
Techiessignature
Gothic- · 6 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 5 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
krol9ash · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
75%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 4 games
25%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 4 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hyugadoto · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 354 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 227 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
344 picks · 640 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
336 picks · 343 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
314 picks · 228 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
296 picks · 289 bans
61%
Pangolier
Pangolier
292 picks · 395 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 317 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Rune Eaters Arise
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:16
Rune Eaters Arise 57%PuckChamp 43%
The model gave 57% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetyowaai
56% · 228 games47% · 360 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Huskar
HuskarEthereal
62% · 113 games45% · 392 games
TinyYuragi
Tiny
Doom
DoomAnkou
58% · 250 games43% · 195 games
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
Dawnbreaker
Rubick
Rubickani-san
49% · 302 games42% · 76 games
Winter WyvernHyugadoto
Winter Wyvern
Tusk
Tuskwaveformn
51% · 491 game47% · 361 game
SnapfireGothic-
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct26:12
Rune Eaters Arise 58%PuckChamp 42%
The model gave 58% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 27:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzyowaai
54% · 131 game47% · 297 games
Shadow FiendYuragi
Shadow Fiend
Enigma
EnigmaAnkou
54% · 107 games48% · 332 games
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
Centaur Warrunner
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEthereal
54% · 403 games43% · 232 games
Void Spiritdualrazee
Void Spirit
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkwaveformn
51% · 587 games36% · 307 games
WindrangerGothic-
Windranger
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorani-san
61% · 176 games54% · 236 games
BaneHyugadoto
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters Arise · 61%
Series resultRune Eaters Arise 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2