EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters Ariseloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters Arise
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 9 games
Largooften banned
Ankou · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
Marcioften banned
waveformn · 4 games
Mirana
xsvampire · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 4 games
Winter Wyvern
ani-san · 4 games
Team Lynx
Dark Willow
QBFY · 29 games
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 26 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 25 games
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
Rubick
QBFY · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Techies
kreker · 20 games
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
484 picks · 330 bans
Bane
347 picks · 455 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 532 bans
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 490 bans
Shadow Fiend
313 picks · 641 bans
Tiny
282 picks · 316 bans
Windranger
277 picks · 202 bans
Snapfire
266 picks · 431 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Rune Eaters Arise
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:42
Rune Eaters Arise 45%Team Lynx 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 44:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetyowaai
Phantom LancerTA2000
TimbersawAnkou
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
SlardarEthereal
Tinymellojul
BaneVaniLLl
Miranakreker
Ringmasterani-san
Bounty HunterQBFY
Game 2prediction correct10:38
Rune Eaters Arise 47%Team Lynx 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 21:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendyowaai
NecrophosTA2000
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
PangolierEthereal
Tinymellojul
Tuskani-san
Techieskreker
Winter WyvernVaniLLl
HoodwinkQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 59%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2