Paragon Turbina · BO1
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters Arisewin 1:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TSTeam Syntaxloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters Arise
No games played over 6 months.
Team Syntax
Tusk
Stoic · 5 games
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Largooften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Phoenix
Jeezy · 2 games
Snapfireoften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Warlock
Stoic · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
495 picks · 354 bans
Rubick
386 picks · 234 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 634 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 347 bans
Windranger
316 picks · 230 bans
Pangolier
298 picks · 397 bans
Bane
293 picks · 283 bans
Storm Spirit
287 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Team Syntax
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Syntax
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:38
Rune Eaters Arise 45%Team Syntax 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 45:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetyowaai
Doomemptiness
PuckEthereal
PhoenixJeezy
LargoAnkou
TuskStoic
Techieswaveformn
Undyingani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Syntax · 58%
Series resultRune Eaters Arise 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1