DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 1:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CCheeki_Breekiloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
raregods · 45 games
Jakirooften banned
Htrd · 42 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 36 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 25 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 24 games
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 23 games
Warlock
Htrd · 22 games
Cheeki_Breeki
Disruptor
Xakoda · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Malik · 3 games
Weaver
OneJey · 2 games
Ancient Apparition
Xakoda · 1 game
Axe
Malik · 1 game
Jakirooften banned
Xakoda · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
563 picks · 646 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 327 bans
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 682 bans
Snapfire
450 picks · 166 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 529 bans
Hoodwink
426 picks · 203 bans
Mars
391 picks · 526 bans
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Cheeki_Breeki
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:19
Rune Eaters 34%Cheeki_Breeki 66%
The model gave 66% on Cheeki_Breeki — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 35:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteCheeki_Breeki · 66%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1