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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 58 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 51 game
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 47 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 40 games
43%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 35 games
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 33 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Htrd · 32 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 32 games
56%

Level UP

Tusk
Tusk
Gilgir · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
0%
Pugna
Pugna
kur0patbI4 · 5 games
40%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
MaTson · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Gilgir · 5 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nikobaby · 4 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gilgir · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
640 picks · 815 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 581 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
460 picks · 399 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
454 picks · 301 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
407 picks · 1051 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 681 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 608 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
368 picks · 970 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 41%
Hero pool strength62% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:45
Rune Eaters 65%Level UP 35%
The model gave 65% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Level UP in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinyowaai
54% · 285 games55% · 380 games
Bristlebackchempik
Bristleback
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEthereal
44% · 227 games47% · 390 games
WindrangerNorma
Windranger
Enigma
EnigmaAnkou
51% · 119 games48% · 605 games
Tusklupsione
Tusk
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
48% · 679 games53% · 477 games
Shadow Demonmonodrama
Shadow Demon
Tiny
Tinyani-san
50% · 542 games
Game 2prediction correct25:17
Rune Eaters 66%Level UP 34%
The model gave 66% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunayowaai
46% · 34 games51% · 156 games
Morphlingchempik
Morphling
Leshrac
LeshracEthereal
50% · 115 games49% · 343 games
MarsNorma
Mars
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAnkou
36% · 74 games56% · 245 games
Muertalupsione
Muerta
Ringmaster
Ringmasterani-san
56% · 235 games53% · 62 games
Ogre Magimonodrama
Ogre Magi
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
48% · 348 games
Game 3prediction correct21:10
Rune Eaters 66%Level UP 34%
The model gave 66% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 19:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasteryowaai
43% · 181 game48% · 150 games
Svenchempik
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracEthereal
39% · 89 games59% · 308 games
BristlebackNorma
Bristleback
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAnkou
47% · 86 games56% · 73 games
Nyx Assassinlupsione
Nyx Assassin
Disruptor
DisruptorKidaro
53% · 170 games50% · 199 games
Phoenixmonodrama
Phoenix
Ringmaster
Ringmasterani-san
51% · 204 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 79%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3