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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 60 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 53 games
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 47 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 41 game
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 36 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 33 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Htrd · 33 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 32 games
56%

Nemiga Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 12 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 10 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 10 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 9 games
44%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Covisnine · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
648 picks · 819 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 586 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 402 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
459 picks · 307 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
411 picks · 1062 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 691 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 616 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
375 picks · 981 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:8
Rune Eaters 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 28:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
55% · 307 games50% · 325 games
Templar Assassinselfhate
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEthereal
61% · 388 games46% · 235 games
Void Spirityoung G
Void Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAnkou
51% · 153 games44% · 226 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonani-san
51% · 433 games47% · 233 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorKidaro
51% · 362 games44% · 624 games
Jakiroariel
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct20:24
Rune Eaters 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
49% · 264 games53% · 156 games
Lifestealerselfhate
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaEthereal
50% · 123 games46% · 136 games
Primal BeastCovisnine
Primal Beast
Enigma
EnigmaAnkou
41% · 88 games53% · 365 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonani-san
54% · 295 games53% · 341 game
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
48% · 560 games52% · 332 games
DisruptorVaniLLl
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 65%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2