Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Sorrywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
No Sorry
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
layme · 25 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 24 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 23 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 18 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 626 bans
Tiny
462 picks · 496 bans
Bane
435 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
416 picks · 541 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 811 bans
Storm Spirit
349 picks · 581 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 518 bans
Dragon Knight
347 picks · 387 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:38
Rune Eaters 53%No Sorry 47%
The model gave 53% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by No Sorry in 50:12.
Game 2prediction missed40:31
Rune Eaters 53%No Sorry 47%
The model gave 53% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by No Sorry in 35:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 53%
Series resultNo Sorry 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2