?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 1:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:0
NPC's IRLloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 57 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 50 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 45 games
49%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 38 games
42%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 31 game
52%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
57%

NPC's IRL

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
SsaSpartan · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Atoufix · 4 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 2 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Focus · 2 games
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Focus · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nande · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
SsaSpartan · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Focus · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 928 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 415 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
472 picks · 618 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 574 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
429 picks · 942 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
402 picks · 247 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 660 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 441 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 25%
Hero pool strength57% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Rune Eaters 90%NPC's IRL 10%
The model gave 90% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 90%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1