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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 49 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 42 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 37 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 37 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 33 games
39%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 27 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 26 games
58%

Roar Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 11 games
27%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LOyd · 10 games
30%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 10 games
30%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
14%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
LOyd · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 594 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 407 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 401 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
436 picks · 470 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
417 picks · 197 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
411 picks · 261 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1038 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 865 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 53%
Hero pool strength59% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:12
Rune Eaters 48%Roar Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 40:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
54% · 257 games49% · 350 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
47% · 279 games51% · 216 games
Bristlebackukiyo
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderAnkou
55% · 326 games55% · 149 games
Sand King生死
Sand King
Enchantress
EnchantressKidaro
47% · 180 games55% · 289 games
Shadow DemonCatYou
Shadow Demon
Lion
Lionani-san
36% · 99 games50% · 137 games
SilencerLOyd
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct38:20
Rune Eaters 50%Roar Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 38:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertayowaai
50% · 196 games44% · 155 games
Weaverukiyo
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEthereal
54% · 278 games52% · 273 games
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
Shadow Fiend
Batrider
BatriderAnkou
51% · 277 games48% · 296 games
Tidehunter生死
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonani-san
54% · 300 games51% · 287 games
PhoenixLOyd
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressKidaro
46% · 108 games50% · 148 games
RubickCatYou
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 51%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2