?
arrow_backBack to match
PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Shpilitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 57 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 50 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 45 games
49%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 39 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 35 games
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 32 games
53%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
57%

Team Shpilit

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Zarich · 6 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Solo · 5 games
20%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
75%
Marci
Marci
Kyzko · 4 games
25%
Muerta
Muerta
zuyzyan · 4 games
25%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 4 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
zuyzyan · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
606 picks · 814 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
543 picks · 561 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
439 picks · 397 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
430 picks · 298 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1031 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 672 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 595 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
350 picks · 931 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:16
Rune Eaters 67%Team Shpilit 33%
The model gave 67% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 30:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangeryowaai
51% · 260 games41% · 121 game
Kezzuyzyan
Kez
Leshrac
LeshracEthereal
54% · 188 games50% · 333 games
Shadow FiendAinkrad
Shadow Fiend
Batrider
BatriderAnkou
54% · 270 games50% · 436 games
Centaur WarrunnerZarich
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
Tuskani-san
50% · 467 games47% · 489 games
WarlockSolo
Warlock
Disruptor
DisruptorKidaro
51% · 308 games50% · 114 games
LionKyzko
Lion
Game 2prediction correct34:13
Rune Eaters 68%Team Shpilit 32%
The model gave 68% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 32:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangeryowaai
47% · 232 games46% · 162 games
TimbersawZarich
Timbersaw
Viper
ViperEthereal
50% · 115 games47% · 108 games
Kezzuyzyan
Kez
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAnkou
46% · 112 games54% · 106 games
InvokerAinkrad
Invoker
Tusk
Tuskani-san
49% · 453 games54% · 293 games
Shadow ShamanKyzko
Shadow Shaman
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKidaro
60% · 96 games48% · 339 games
WarlockSolo
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 78%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2