ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 51 game
Jakirooften banned
Htrd · 43 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 38 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 27 games
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 25 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 24 games
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 8 games
Techies
Aidar · 8 games
Broodmotheroften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
556 picks · 735 bans
Tusk
497 picks · 352 bans
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 644 bans
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 544 bans
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 631 bans
Gyrocopter
365 picks · 547 bans
Snapfire
358 picks · 116 bans
Hoodwink
357 picks · 171 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:21
Rune Eaters 65%Team Spirit Academy 35%
The model gave 65% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightEthereal
Shadow Fiendrubikon155
EnigmaAnkou
Leshrac86
Tinyani-san
Primal BeastSunshineRR
Warlockmonodrama
Ogre Magikyford
53% · 30 games
OracleAidar
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 79%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1