PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionSsaadboyswin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yoru Ryodanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
saadboys
Lich
Ifrit · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Muerta
N1NE · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Yoru Ryodan
Lion
Ezekiel · 2 games
Grimstroke
Ezekiel · 1 game
Iooften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
455 picks · 371 bans
Clockwerk
423 picks · 538 bans
Batrider
376 picks · 477 bans
Lion
371 picks · 194 bans
Gyrocopter
361 picks · 585 bans
Phoenix
360 picks · 397 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 584 bans
Beastmaster
340 picks · 851 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% saadboys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% saadboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:19
saadboys 52%Yoru Ryodan 48%
The model gave 52% on saadboys — the game was taken by saadboys in 26:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinCucahook
Shadow DemonEzekiel
ClockwerkN1NE
LichIfrit
Game 2prediction correct35:19
saadboys 55%Yoru Ryodan 45%
The model gave 55% on saadboys — the game was taken by saadboys in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistCucahook
LionEzekiel
Crystal MaidenIfrit
MuertaN1NE
Model check result
Model favoritesaadboys · 55%
Series resultsaadboys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2