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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Another NA Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sand King Gomez

Mirana
Mirana
N1NE · 2 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
N1NE · 1 game
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
N1NE · 1 game
0%

Another NA Team

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
USH · 7 games
57%
Silencer
Silencer
FeelinG · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
The Warden · 7 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Argius · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
The Warden · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
FeelinG · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
USH · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
USH · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
937 picks · 641 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
656 picks · 458 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
562 picks · 895 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
546 picks · 442 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
538 picks · 540 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
503 picks · 337 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
486 picks · 1056 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
459 picks · 336 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Another NA Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:39
Sand King Gomez 56%Another NA Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNeKo
56% · 203 games47% · 134 games
Nature's ProphetArgius
Nature's Prophet
Mirana
MiranaN1NE
57% · 354 games58% · 115 games
LeshracRRL
Leshrac
30% · 21 game
Legion CommanderUSH
Legion Commander
38% · 119 games
DisruptorThe Warden
Disruptor
40% · 168 games
TuskFeelinG
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct37:14
Sand King Gomez 54%Another NA Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNeKo
55% · 192 games47% · 26 games
LunaArgius
Luna
Hoodwink
HoodwinkN1NE
43% · 282 games56% · 88 games
Dragon KnightUSH
Dragon Knight
44% · 41 game
InvokerRRL
Invoker
53% · 198 games
RubickThe Warden
Rubick
55% · 121 game
ClockwerkFeelinG
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct42:33
Sand King Gomez 52%Another NA Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNeKo
51% · 165 games49% · 27 games
SlarkArgius
Slark
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageN1NE
48% · 66 games40% · 34 games
Shadow FiendRRL
Shadow Fiend
68% · 23 games
Dark SeerUSH
Dark Seer
46% · 88 games
TuskThe Warden
Tusk
51% · 59 games
DisruptorFeelinG
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 58%
Series resultSand King Gomez 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3