Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fart Studiosloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Mirana
N1NE · 3 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Fart Studios
Rubick
Newsham · 10 games
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 10 games
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
Sonic · 6 games
Naga Sirensignature
BSJ · 6 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Jenkins · 6 games
Mirana
Newsham · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BSJ · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
969 picks · 665 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 469 bans
Nature's Prophet
581 picks · 937 bans
Tusk
555 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 527 bans
Snapfire
520 picks · 347 bans
Death Prophet
505 picks · 1101 bans
Clockwerk
473 picks · 350 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:7
Sand King Gomez 53%Fart Studios 47%
The model gave 53% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 23:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeNeKo
Troll WarlordBSJ
HoodwinkN1NE
Outworld DestroyeriAnnihilate
62% · 71 game
Broodmothermonkeys-forever
52% · 180 games
RubickNewsham
59% · 102 games
Treant ProtectorJenkins
Game 2prediction correct
Sand King Gomez 58%Fart Studios 42%
The model gave 58% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez.
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 58%
Series resultSand King Gomez 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2