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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Lucky Birdwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sand King Gomez

Mirana
Mirana
N1NE · 10 games
40%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 7 games
57%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
100%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Jubei · 4 games
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 3 games
33%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
N1NE · 3 games
0%

Lucky Bird

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 6 games
17%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Yadomi · 6 games
17%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Satoshi- · 6 games
17%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
blessed kid · 6 games
17%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Satoshi- · 5 games
40%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Rises · 5 games
20%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
710 picks · 614 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
594 picks · 516 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
494 picks · 1226 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
494 picks · 949 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
439 picks · 1096 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
427 picks · 882 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
414 picks · 219 bans
59%
Enchantress
Enchantress
410 picks · 587 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total55% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:33
Sand King Gomez 51%Lucky Bird 49%
The model gave 51% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaJubei
59% · 60 games47% · 77 games
BloodseekerArgius
Bloodseeker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkN1NE
53% · 53 games42% · 36 games
Windrangerblessed kid
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 55%
Series resultLucky Bird 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1