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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sand King Gomez

Mirana
Mirana
N1NE · 7 games
57%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 5 games
80%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
100%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
0%

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 17 games
76%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Speeed · 10 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 9 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 9 games
78%
Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
693 picks · 597 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555 picks · 487 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
445 picks · 1093 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
441 picks · 785 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 1022 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 205 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 827 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
375 picks · 544 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:34
Sand King Gomez 42%Team DogChamp 58%
The model gave 58% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 49:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Techies
TechiesN1NE
57% · 131 game56% · 37 games
DoomSpeeed
Doom
62% · 17 games
Morphlingdnm
Morphling
35% · 27 games
Void Spiritred2
Void Spirit
35% · 36 games
Skywrath MageMoOz
Skywrath Mage
28% · 14 games
LichBloody Nine
Lich
Game 2prediction correct8:33
Sand King Gomez 39%Team DogChamp 61%
The model gave 61% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 26:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinN1NE
49% · 100 games58% · 27 games
BeastmasterSpeeed
Beastmaster
60% · 11 games
Medusadnm
Medusa
49% · 33 games
Pangolierred2
Pangolier
38% · 25 games
SilencerBloody Nine
Silencer
63% · 4 games
TechiesMoOz
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 64%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2