Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TiltedBoyswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
No games played over 6 months.
TiltedBoys
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
792 picks · 562 bans
Tiny
567 picks · 402 bans
Treant Protector
525 picks · 570 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 425 bans
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 735 bans
Death Prophet
415 picks · 831 bans
Snapfire
412 picks · 294 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 858 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 78%
Hero pool strength53% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
Sand King Gomez 39%TiltedBoys 61%
The model gave 61% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinNeKo
BeastmasterEzekiel
Nyx AssassinN1NE
Game 2prediction missed37:13
Sand King Gomez 39%TiltedBoys 61%
The model gave 61% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 46:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkNeKo
Centaur WarrunnerEzekiel
MiranaN1NE
Game 3prediction correct19:24
Sand King Gomez 39%TiltedBoys 61%
The model gave 61% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerNeKo
BeastmasterEzekiel
RubickN1NE
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 65%
Series resultTiltedBoys 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3