Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TMTrouble Makers Rebornwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Mirana
N1NE · 9 games
Skywrath Magesignature
N1NE · 6 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Trouble Makers Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
698 picks · 597 bans
Disruptor
565 picks · 493 bans
Beastmaster
461 picks · 1123 bans
Doom
454 picks · 834 bans
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 1053 bans
Enchantress
389 picks · 550 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 842 bans
Mirana
385 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:59
Sand King Gomez 67%Trouble Makers Reborn 33%
The model gave 67% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Trouble Makers Reborn in 57:21.
Game 2prediction missed14:21
Sand King Gomez 67%Trouble Makers Reborn 33%
The model gave 67% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Trouble Makers Reborn in 20:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 67%
Series resultTrouble Makers Reborn 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2