FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Sentinel Esportsloss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Estar Backswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sentinel Esports
Phoenix
Pamplona · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
555k · 3 games
Slardar
Hermit · 3 games
Disruptor
555k · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
Chenoften banned
555k · 1 game
Dark Willow
Pamplona · 1 game
Estar Backs
Naga Sirenoften banned
Prada · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Ringmaster
Prada · 4 games
Tusk
Prada · 4 games
Alchemist
bsK7- · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 2 games
Disruptor
Accel · 2 games
Huskaroften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
298 picks · 743 bans
Disruptor
283 picks · 255 bans
Shadow Shaman
273 picks · 173 bans
Dawnbreaker
260 picks · 689 bans
Pugna
259 picks · 275 bans
Tusk
251 picks · 244 bans
Marci
248 picks · 695 bans
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Sentinel Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
Sentinel Esports 48%Estar Backs 52%
The model gave 52% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlardarHermit
GyrocopterbsK7-
Enchantress555k
SnapfireMichael
Dark WillowPamplona
TuskAccel
Game 2prediction missed37:12
Sentinel Esports 48%Estar Backs 52%
The model gave 52% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Sentinel Esports in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsHermit
AlchemistbsK7-
PhoenixPamplona
SnapfireMichael
Grimstroke555k
WarlockAccel
Game 3prediction correct32:35
Sentinel Esports 48%Estar Backs 52%
The model gave 52% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 55:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerHermit
UrsabsK7-
GyrocopterPamplona
HoodwinkMichael
Clockwerk555k
DisruptorAccel
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 59%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3