BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Sentinel Esportsloss 0:1series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Kalmychatawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sentinel Esports
Phoenix
Pamplona · 2 games
Slardar
Hermit · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
Chenoften banned
555k · 1 game
Dark Willow
Pamplona · 1 game
Disruptor
555k · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Hermit · 1 game
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 19 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Void Spirit
WoE · 17 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 694 bans
Shadow Shaman
280 picks · 179 bans
Disruptor
256 picks · 225 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
249 picks · 253 bans
Dark Willow
246 picks · 105 bans
Marci
245 picks · 604 bans
Nature's Prophet
242 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Sentinel Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Sentinel Esports 19%Kalmychata 81%
The model gave 81% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 81%
Series resultKalmychata 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1