Национальная Студенческая Лига Киберспорта Dota 2 · BO3
result vs predictionССевГУwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Derzhawinloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
СевГУ
No games played over 6 months.
Derzhawin
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
507 picks · 688 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 486 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 533 bans
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
Dark Willow
350 picks · 180 bans
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 475 bans
Enchantress
324 picks · 633 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% СевГУ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% СевГУ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:50
СевГУ 70%Derzhawin 30%
The model gave 70% on СевГУ — the game was taken by СевГУ in 51:16.
Game 2prediction correct55:34
СевГУ 70%Derzhawin 30%
The model gave 70% on СевГУ — the game was taken by СевГУ in 46:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteСевГУ · 70%
Series resultСевГУ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2