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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
SF Pos 4win 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SF Pos 4

No games played over 6 months.

IHC Esports

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
ace12 · 6 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
eleven · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
eleven · 5 games
40%
Marci
Marcioften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
ace12 · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 4 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 348 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
408 picks · 449 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
386 picks · 827 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 871 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
358 picks · 744 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 513 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
328 picks · 499 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 561 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% SF Pos 4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% SF Pos 4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:8
SF Pos 4 51%IHC Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on SF Pos 4 — the game was taken by SF Pos 4 in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverGhost
60% · 199 games45% · 120 games
Troll WarlordFortuneSoul
Troll Warlord
Primal Beast
Primal BeastArmel
54% · 226 games45% · 216 games
Timbersaweleven
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomFbz
55% · 158 games46% · 305 games
HoodwinkHishge
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickDJ
47% · 322 games49% · 264 games
Brewmasterace12
Brewmaster
Game 2prediction correct32:15
SF Pos 4 51%IHC Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on SF Pos 4 — the game was taken by SF Pos 4 in 35:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingFbz
44% · 19 games51% · 22 games
Phantom AssassinFortuneSoul
Phantom Assassin
Lina
LinaGhost
40% · 69 games49% · 137 games
Timbersaweleven
Timbersaw
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendArmel
65% · 38 games50% · 4 games
Tinkerace12
Tinker
Rubick
RubickDJ
49% · 163 games52% · 126 games
Dark WillowHishge
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteSF Pos 4 · 50%
Series resultSF Pos 4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2