ВКСЛ 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs predictionССФУwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ППНИПУloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
СФУ
No games played over 6 months.
ПНИПУ
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
741 picks · 563 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 525 bans
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1275 bans
Doom
557 picks · 1096 bans
Techies
509 picks · 570 bans
Pangolier
474 picks · 951 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1109 bans
Enchantress
461 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% СФУ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% ПНИПУ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
СФУ 47%ПНИПУ 53%
The model gave 53% on ПНИПУ — the game was taken by СФУ.
Game 2prediction correct
СФУ 47%ПНИПУ 53%
The model gave 53% on ПНИПУ — the game was taken by ПНИПУ.
Game 3prediction missed
СФУ 47%ПНИПУ 53%
The model gave 53% on ПНИПУ — the game was taken by СФУ.
Model check result
Model favoriteПНИПУ · 53%
Series resultСФУ 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3