Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportsloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Timbersawoften banned
Frank · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Mnz · 1 game
Earthshaker
MoOz · 1 game
Enchantress
Mjz · 1 game
Jakiro
Mjz · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Mnz · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
MoOz · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
145 picks · 266 bans
Puck
144 picks · 336 bans
Earth Spirit
132 picks · 110 bans
Void Spirit
124 picks · 184 bans
Phoenix
113 picks · 126 bans
Keeper of the Light
97 picks · 178 bans
Nyx Assassin
95 picks · 338 bans
Rubick
94 picks · 46 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:8
SG e-sports 51%Thunder Awaken 49%
The model gave 51% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 26:02.
Game 2prediction missed14:36
SG e-sports 51%Thunder Awaken 49%
The model gave 51% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 29:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 51%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2