Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Shenzhenwin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Disruptorsignature
XCJ · 7 games
Snapfire
Son GoKu · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
XCJ · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Flyby · 5 games
Razoroften banned
MS · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Night · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
Bane
XCJ · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
429 picks · 263 bans
Queen of Pain
379 picks · 494 bans
Mars
353 picks · 500 bans
Weaver
341 picks · 489 bans
Kunkka
279 picks · 475 bans
Death Prophet
257 picks · 393 bans
Grimstroke
255 picks · 172 bans
Wraith King
247 picks · 336 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:33
Shenzhen 39%Sparking Arrow Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 48:15.
Game 2prediction correct24:11
Shenzhen 39%Sparking Arrow Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 34:20.
Game 3prediction correct20:20
Shenzhen 39%Sparking Arrow Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 43:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteSparking Arrow Gaming · 61%
Series resultShenzhen 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3