PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionSShindennwin 1:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Flame Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shindenn
No games played over 6 months.
Flame Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
536 picks · 863 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 375 bans
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 640 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 593 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 793 bans
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 576 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 557 bans
Mars
341 picks · 488 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Shindenn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Flame Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Shindenn 39%Flame Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Flame Esports — the game was taken by Shindenn.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlame Esports · 61%
Series resultShindenn 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1