DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionSShizageddonwin 1:0
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Kalmychataloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shizageddon
No games played over 6 months.
Kalmychata
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
664 picks · 773 bans
Tiny
546 picks · 519 bans
Tusk
499 picks · 413 bans
Warlock
455 picks · 312 bans
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1118 bans
Puck
397 picks · 801 bans
Phoenix
395 picks · 319 bans
Mars
390 picks · 598 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Shizageddon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Shizageddon 18%Kalmychata 82%
The model gave 82% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Shizageddon.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 82%
Series resultShizageddon 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1