DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionSShizageddonloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shizageddon
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 15 games
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 12 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 11 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 9 games
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
661 picks · 752 bans
Tiny
537 picks · 507 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 410 bans
Warlock
451 picks · 308 bans
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 1107 bans
Phoenix
396 picks · 325 bans
Puck
392 picks · 799 bans
Mars
388 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Shizageddon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Shizageddon 28%Nemiga Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Shizageddon 28%Nemiga Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 72%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2