DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 15 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 12 games
9Pandas
Tinyoften banned
erase · 29 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 24 games
Elder Titan
Solo · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Solo · 21 game
Lion
lupsione · 20 games
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
Solo · 17 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
519 picks · 778 bans
Tiny
505 picks · 601 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 513 bans
Batrider
471 picks · 580 bans
Muerta
447 picks · 379 bans
Magnus
433 picks · 990 bans
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 778 bans
Lich
389 picks · 211 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:13
Shopify Rebellion 51%9Pandas 49%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerTimado
RazorV-Tune
AbaddonPakazs
Dark Seerlaise
TinyYopaj
InvokerSerenada
ZeusSkem
Clockwerklupsione
LionHellscream
Elder TitanSolo
Game 2prediction missed20:25
Shopify Rebellion 53%9Pandas 47%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 39:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerTimado
BristlebackV-Tune
PangolierYopaj
Earth SpiritSerenada
DawnbreakerPakazs
Clockwerklupsione
VenomancerSkem
Enigmalaise
Spirit BreakerHellscream
ChenSolo
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2