FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 17 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 15 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
AVULUS
Lionsignature
Ekki · 43 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 39 games
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 38 games
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 31 game
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 30 games
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 27 games
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
485 picks · 421 bans
Phoenix
446 picks · 523 bans
Batrider
442 picks · 542 bans
Clockwerk
438 picks · 565 bans
Lion
432 picks · 231 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 775 bans
Pangolier
383 picks · 581 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 428 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:43
Shopify Rebellion 46%AVULUS 54%
The model gave 54% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 47:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingTimado
BloodseekerSmiling Knight
Beastmastermangekyou
Earth SpiritStormstormer
TinyYopaj
DawnbreakerXibbe
MuertaHellscream
PugnaSoNNeikO
LichSkem
LionEkki
Game 2prediction correct15:35
Shopify Rebellion 45%AVULUS 55%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightTimado
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Earth SpiritYopaj
TinyStormstormer
Beastmastermangekyou
UnderlordXibbe
GyrocopterHellscream
Shadow ShamanEkki
ClockwerkSkem
PugnaSoNNeikO
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 56%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2