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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Puck
Puckoften banned
Abed · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 10 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 9 games
78%
Sven
Svensignature
Fly · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
75%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 7 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 7 games
86%

B8 Esports

Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 16 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Alexxo · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Sammyboy · 9 games
44%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
56%
Luna
Luna
YamSun · 8 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 7 games
100%
Chen
Chen
Sammyboy · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 353 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 334 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
278 picks · 206 bans
60%
Mirana
Mirana
271 picks · 266 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
197 picks · 146 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
186 picks · 107 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
181 picks · 501 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
176 picks · 470 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 29%
Hero pool strength61% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:31
Shopify Rebellion 75%B8 Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 47:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaArteezy
45% · 166 games60% · 96 games
LifestealerStoneBank
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaAbed
42% · 120 games57% · 72 games
LycanFunn1k
Lycan
Slardar
SlardarSabeRLight-
51% · 41 game56% · 219 games
RubickMoOz
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
38% · 133 games62% · 11 games
Witch DoctorDendi
Witch Doctor
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
43% · 106 games52% · 168 games
ClockwerkLodine
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Shopify Rebellion 77%B8 Esports 23%
The model gave 77% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 22:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaArteezy
45% · 50 games53% · 87 games
UrsaStoneBank
Ursa
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
48% · 72 games47% · 98 games
DoomFunn1k
Doom
Tusk
TuskAbed
54% · 188 games45% · 60 games
PudgeDendi
Pudge
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCr1t-
47% · 21 game47% · 119 games
HoodwinkMoOz
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
55% · 119 games56% · 86 games
Winter WyvernLodine
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 91%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2