Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
beastcoastloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
Sven
Arteezy · 11 games
Tinysignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
392 picks · 845 bans
Hoodwink
389 picks · 389 bans
Rubick
375 picks · 275 bans
Weaver
363 picks · 766 bans
Clockwerk
328 picks · 473 bans
Pangolier
328 picks · 522 bans
Phoenix
319 picks · 658 bans
Gyrocopter
313 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:31
Shopify Rebellion 65%beastcoast 35%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 43:31.
Game 2prediction missed16:21
Shopify Rebellion 65%beastcoast 35%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by beastcoast in 33:49.
Game 3prediction correct33:9
Shopify Rebellion 65%beastcoast 35%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 28:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 65%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3