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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 13 games
62%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
mangekyou · 10 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 20 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Matthew · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
82%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 16 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 15 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 15 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
415 picks · 490 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 533 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
349 picks · 183 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
340 picks · 451 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
305 picks · 491 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 595 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
303 picks · 325 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:7
Shopify Rebellion 50%BOOM Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
49% · 447 games49% · 451 game
Dragon KnightJaCkky
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
Beastmastermangekyou
55% · 287 games48% · 492 games
PangolierMac
Pangolier
Timbersaw
TimbersawYopaj
46% · 355 games48% · 327 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixSkem
51% · 453 games48% · 299 games
SnapfireTims
Snapfire
Lion
LionHellscream
50% · 400 games56% · 373 games
Shadow DemonJaunuel
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct15:40
Shopify Rebellion 50%BOOM Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerTimado
48% · 39 games56% · 96 games
Earth SpiritMac
Earth Spirit
Visage
Visagemangekyou
36% · 63 games46% · 29 games
SpectreJaCkky
Spectre
Magnus
MagnusYopaj
58% · 155 games47% · 175 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderHellscream
49% · 324 games51% · 276 games
RubickTims
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixSkem
49% · 235 games54% · 240 games
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 51%
Accuracy by game2 of 2