The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CChapulinesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 15 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Tinysignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
Chapulines
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 746 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 628 bans
Gyrocopter
429 picks · 417 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 743 bans
Rubick
380 picks · 165 bans
Dragon Knight
354 picks · 1025 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 729 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:11
Shopify Rebellion 79%Chapulines 21%
The model gave 79% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 21:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendArteezy
DawnbreakerSatoshi-
Sand KingMinD_ContRoL
RazorIfrit
Witch DoctorSkem
Earth SpiritYopaj
Game 2prediction correct61:9
Shopify Rebellion 81%Chapulines 19%
The model gave 81% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 27:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendArteezy
WindrangerIfrit
TimbersawYopaj
Sand KingSatoshi-
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
ClockwerkSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 93%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2