DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EEEntropia Esportloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 14 games
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
Entropia Esport
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
410 picks · 525 bans
Muerta
401 picks · 327 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 386 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 573 bans
Lion
347 picks · 173 bans
Batrider
341 picks · 428 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 780 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 477 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:4
Shopify Rebellion 94%Entropia Esport 6%
The model gave 94% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 20:47.
Game 2prediction correct18:2
Shopify Rebellion 94%Entropia Esport 6%
The model gave 94% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 13:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 94%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2