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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fart Studiosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 10 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Abed · 9 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fly · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Abed · 8 games
75%

Fart Studios

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Newsham · 3 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
33%
Zeus
Zeus
iAnnihilate · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Jenkins · 2 games
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
0%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Fear · 2 games
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Newsham · 2 games
100%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Newsham · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 435 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
249 picks · 389 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
246 picks · 339 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
220 picks · 206 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
211 picks · 299 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
200 picks · 501 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
184 picks · 325 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct59:19
Shopify Rebellion 78%Fart Studios 22%
The model gave 78% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenArteezy
61% · 24 games49% · 159 games
MorphlingSkyward
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawSabeRLight-
52% · 297 games49% · 171 game
Storm SpiritiAnnihilate
Storm Spirit
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
52% · 126 games42% · 309 games
RubickNewsham
Rubick
Batrider
BatriderThiolicor
52% · 356 games42% · 18 games
ViperJenkins
Viper
49% · 146 games
TinySonic
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct36:11
Shopify Rebellion 75%Fart Studios 25%
The model gave 75% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 20:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
50% · 225 games53% · 15 games
MeepoSkyward
Meepo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerYopaj
50% · 64 games51% · 194 games
Storm SpiritiAnnihilate
Storm Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernArteezy
45% · 25 games57% · 34 games
GyrocopterJenkins
Gyrocopter
Techies
TechiesThiolicor
44% · 169 games46% · 79 games
LionSonic
Lion
57% · 161 game
ClockwerkNewsham
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 92%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2