The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 15 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Tinysignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
GRIN esports
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
Marssignature
Moo · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 7 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 5 games
Luna
Double King · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 226 bans
Tiny
456 picks · 749 bans
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 631 bans
Gyrocopter
433 picks · 416 bans
Batrider
402 picks · 742 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 168 bans
Dragon Knight
354 picks · 1021 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 725 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:28
Shopify Rebellion 73%GRIN esports 27%
The model gave 73% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYopaj
Sand KingMoo
PudgeArteezy
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Crystal MaidenSkem
Game 2prediction correct27:15
Shopify Rebellion 70%GRIN esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 45:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerArteezy
Dragon KnightMoo
Earth SpiritYopaj
AxeMinD_ContRoL
Winter WyvernSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 82%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2