?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 13 games
62%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Pakazs · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 25 games
52%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 24 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
476 picks · 702 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
384 picks · 748 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
364 picks · 366 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
354 picks · 208 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 636 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
336 picks · 656 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
317 picks · 421 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
311 picks · 569 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:31
Shopify Rebellion 52%Heroic 48%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 49:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
39% · 128 games49% · 143 games
KunkkaYuma
Kunkka
Bristleback
BristlebackPakazs
50% · 198 games56% · 255 games
Sand KingWisper
Sand King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
47% · 264 games53% · 119 games
Slardar4nalog
Slardar
Windranger
WindrangerSkem
47% · 152 games59% · 103 games
ChenKJ
Chen
Ringmaster
RingmasterHellscream
49% · 72 games51% · 194 games
Shadow DemonScofield
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct38:23
Shopify Rebellion 52%Heroic 48%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 49:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinTimado
47% · 224 games48% · 153 games
MorphlingYuma
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
55% · 391 game49% · 191 game
Ember Spirit4nalog
Ember Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaPakazs
42% · 137 games42% · 75 games
SlardarWisper
Slardar
Tinker
TinkerSkem
53% · 73 games50% · 295 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Ringmaster
RingmasterHellscream
58% · 104 games55% · 215 games
TuskKJ
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 57%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2