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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Looking for Orgwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Skem · 12 games
58%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
22%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
44%

Looking for Org

Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
29%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 5 games
40%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Yadomi · 5 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Sacred · 3 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 259 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
349 picks · 330 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
340 picks · 396 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 489 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
302 picks · 264 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
290 picks · 303 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
285 picks · 392 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 453 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:36
Shopify Rebellion 56%Looking for Org 44%
The model gave 56% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidTimado
53% · 41 game43% · 106 games
LunaMnz
Luna
Monkey King
Monkey KingYopaj
49% · 123 games50% · 162 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Enigma
Enigmamangekyou
57% · 93 games60% · 19 games
Night StalkerSacred
Night Stalker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinHellscream
50% · 62 games48% · 179 games
EnchantressYadomi
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSkem
51% · 250 games46% · 103 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct24:14
Shopify Rebellion 55%Looking for Org 45%
The model gave 55% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 40:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTimado
41% · 279 games50% · 241 game
WindrangerMnz
Windranger
Puck
PuckYopaj
50% · 210 games59% · 63 games
EarthshakerDarkMago
Earthshaker
Beastmaster
Beastmastermangekyou
49% · 138 games49% · 389 games
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaSkem
49% · 145 games48% · 175 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskHellscream
50% · 215 games58% · 119 games
Treant ProtectorYadomi
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed6:30
Shopify Rebellion 57%Looking for Org 43%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTimado
48% · 326 games56% · 200 games
WeaverMnz
Weaver
Viper
ViperYopaj
42% · 55 games49% · 62 games
BristlebackSacred
Bristleback
Pangolier
Pangoliermangekyou
49% · 368 games57% · 326 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaSkem
49% · 133 games48% · 246 games
EnchantressYadomi
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskHellscream
46% · 195 games55% · 243 games
Shadow DemonMatthew
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 63%
Series resultLooking for Org 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3