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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Puck
Puckoften banned
Abed · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 11 games
64%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 9 games
78%
Sven
Svensignature
Fly · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
75%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 7 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 7 games
86%

nouns

Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 7 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Husky · 6 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Costabile · 6 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 6 games
50%
Chen
Chen
Husky · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 373 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 348 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
315 picks · 222 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
275 picks · 278 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
203 picks · 148 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
198 picks · 109 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
194 picks · 255 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
188 picks · 512 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Shopify Rebellion 60%nouns 40%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 40:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetArteezy
46% · 122 games56% · 85 games
SvenYamSun
Sven
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
56% · 148 games50% · 256 games
Death ProphetGunnar
Death Prophet
Tusk
TuskAbed
48% · 233 games56% · 33 games
Dark SeerMoo
Dark Seer
Marci
MarciCr1t-
48% · 243 games47% · 231 game
SnapfireHusky
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerFly
49% · 94 games47% · 235 games
ClockwerkLelis
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct49:19
Shopify Rebellion 60%nouns 40%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetArteezy
42% · 153 games55% · 188 games
LinaYamSun
Lina
Kunkka
KunkkaAbed
46% · 193 games48% · 83 games
Primal BeastMoo
Primal Beast
Magnus
MagnusSabeRLight-
39% · 59 games50% · 479 games
TinyGunnar
Tiny
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
53% · 393 games54% · 246 games
SnapfireLelis
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFly
51% · 349 games56% · 151 game
Treant ProtectorHusky
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 70%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2