DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 3:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 3:2
nounsloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 21 game
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
nouns
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Fly · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 14 games
Tinysignature
Lelis · 14 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lelis · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 648 bans
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
Mars
379 picks · 613 bans
Techies
377 picks · 307 bans
Batrider
359 picks · 782 bans
Vengeful Spirit
351 picks · 352 bans
Tiny
350 picks · 404 bans
Hoodwink
334 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total65% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:12
Shopify Rebellion 56%nouns 44%
The model gave 56% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaArteezy
Chaos KnightYuma
WindrangerYopaj
RazorCopy
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
MarsGunnar
SnapfireThiolicor
TinyLelis
38% · 23 games
BaneFly
Game 2prediction correct35:28
Shopify Rebellion 58%nouns 42%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 52:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorArteezy
GyrocopterYuma
Death ProphetYopaj
Arc WardenCopy
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
TinyGunnar
SnapfireThiolicor
RubickLelis
54% · 110 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Game 3prediction missed10:43
Shopify Rebellion 56%nouns 44%
The model gave 56% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaYopaj
UrsaYuma
LunaArteezy
KunkkaGunnar
TinySabeRLight-
Death ProphetCopy
RubickThiolicor
GyrocopterLelis
59% · 195 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Game 4prediction missed27:46
Shopify Rebellion 58%nouns 42%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 50:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerYopaj
SvenYuma
Faceless VoidArteezy
Death ProphetCopy
MarsSabeRLight-
Night StalkerGunnar
SnapfireThiolicor
BatriderLelis
53% · 135 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Game 5prediction correct37:34
Shopify Rebellion 57%nouns 43%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 48:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenArteezy
Dragon KnightGunnar
PangolierYopaj
Wraith KingYuma
DoomSabeRLight-
Primal BeastCopy
RubickThiolicor
MiranaFly
58% · 139 games
GyrocopterLelis
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 65%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5