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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 14 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
71%
Luna
Luna
Arteezy · 12 games
25%

nouns

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 19 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 17 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Lelis · 16 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 15 games
53%
Techies
Techiessignature
Fly · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
477 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 669 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
415 picks · 595 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
411 picks · 380 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 738 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
375 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 754 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
339 picks · 1013 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total70% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:27
Shopify Rebellion 59%nouns 41%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 49:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyArteezy
46% · 188 games59% · 71 game
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
55% · 143 games47% · 88 games
Void SpiritCopy
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderMinD_ContRoL
56% · 260 games49% · 287 games
MarsGunnar
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixSkem
41% · 166 games45% · 211 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
53% · 100 games
MuertaLelis
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct16:10
Shopify Rebellion 59%nouns 41%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyArteezy
47% · 313 games51% · 238 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawYopaj
50% · 253 games52% · 219 games
Dragon KnightGunnar
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
50% · 248 games46% · 309 games
BatriderCopy
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixSkem
48% · 182 games54% · 96 games
MuertaLelis
Muerta
54% · 134 games
ClockwerkFly
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 70%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2