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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:3
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:3
nounswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 23 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 15 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 28 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 21 game
81%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 20 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Lelis · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
470 picks · 223 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 733 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 603 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 425 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
384 picks · 702 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 165 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 979 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 700 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total67% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:23
Shopify Rebellion 59%nouns 41%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverArteezy
50% · 115 games48% · 57 games
Chaos KnightYuma
Chaos Knight
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMinD_ContRoL
49% · 120 games54% · 143 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
48% · 234 games51% · 109 games
Dark SeerGunnar
Dark Seer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSkem
53% · 139 games49% · 160 games
ClockwerkLelis
Clockwerk
50% · 139 games
PugnaFly
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed11:31
Shopify Rebellion 60%nouns 40%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordArteezy
56% · 62 gameslittle data
TinkerCopy
Tinker
Slardar
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
53% · 73 games46% · 53 games
Monkey KingYuma
Monkey King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
49% · 139 games53% · 93 games
Dark SeerGunnar
Dark Seer
Disruptor
DisruptorSkem
47% · 125 games54% · 161 game
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
41% · 92 games
TuskLelis
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed21:50
Shopify Rebellion 60%nouns 40%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 49:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaArteezy
53% · 146 games49% · 243 games
TinyYuma
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
47% · 269 games50% · 79 games
Monkey KingCopy
Monkey King
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
52% · 229 games46% · 194 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
56% · 184 games47% · 144 games
MagnusGunnar
Magnus
49% · 168 games
Dark WillowLelis
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 67%
Series resultnouns 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3