ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SabeRLight- · 17 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
Windrangersignature
Arteezy · 10 games
Talon Esports
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Ws · 17 games
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 16 games
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 15 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Ponyo · 12 games
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 11 games
Hoodwinksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
462 picks · 202 bans
Batrider
444 picks · 832 bans
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 667 bans
Tiny
430 picks · 591 bans
Rubick
410 picks · 175 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 694 bans
Mars
384 picks · 621 bans
Techies
383 picks · 297 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:31
Shopify Rebellion 48%Talon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 51:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidArteezy
LunaAkashi
PangolierYopaj
ZeusCHYuan
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
MagnusWs
Shadow DemonThiolicor
TinyJhocam
51% · 61 game
BanePonyo
Game 2prediction correct12:40
Shopify Rebellion 48%Talon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaArteezy
TimbersawWs
Dragon KnightYopaj
Faceless VoidAkashi
DoomSabeRLight-
Death ProphetCHYuan
Dark WillowThiolicor
EnchantressPonyo
50% · 173 games
TinyJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2