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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 11 games
73%
Lycan
Lycansignature
mangekyou · 11 games
73%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 32 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 27 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Natsumi · 22 games
59%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 19 games
74%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 801 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
445 picks · 310 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 800 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 671 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 873 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
393 picks · 372 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
383 picks · 1057 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 526 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:9
Shopify Rebellion 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
49% · 313 games56% · 212 games
BristlebackNatsumi
Bristleback
Lycan
LycanPakazs
43% · 61 game49% · 394 games
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyYopaj
49% · 405 games60% · 171 game
Sand KingWs
Sand King
Tinker
TinkerSkem
47% · 81 game52% · 218 games
JakiroKuku
Jakiro
Snapfire
SnapfireHellscream
44% · 178 games46% · 43 games
RingmasterJhocam
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed6:29
Shopify Rebellion 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingTimado
39% · 9 games44% · 79 games
SvenNatsumi
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
51% · 227 games45% · 163 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPakazs
51% · 140 games56% · 90 games
MagnusWs
Magnus
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightHellscream
52% · 73 games55% · 115 games
WindrangerJhocam
Windranger
Silencer
SilencerSkem
48% · 60 games51% · 62 games
Ancient ApparitionKuku
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2