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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
87%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 14 games
71%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 13 games
77%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 10 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
SabeRLight- · 9 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 9 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 9 games
78%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 25 games
76%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 17 games
82%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 16 games
81%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
75%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
80%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
miCKe · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
741 picks · 466 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
614 picks · 554 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
578 picks · 463 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 575 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
403 picks · 235 bans
44%
Mirana
Mirana
395 picks · 388 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
380 picks · 562 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
377 picks · 584 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 76%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:38
Shopify Rebellion 39%Team Liquid 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 52:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaArteezy
56% · 329 games49% · 215 games
Nature's Prophetzai
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
52% · 527 games45% · 366 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
52% · 269 games48% · 604 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCr1t-
52% · 266 games45% · 201 game
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Undying
UndyingFly
53% · 312 games49% · 317 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct7:35
Shopify Rebellion 39%Team Liquid 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 22:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderAbed
50% · 282 games50% · 244 games
Nature's Prophetzai
Nature's Prophet
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArteezy
46% · 273 games50% · 124 games
SlarkmiCKe
Slark
Chen
ChenSabeRLight-
54% · 108 games46% · 387 games
Death ProphetNisha
Death Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
54% · 324 games49% · 645 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
50% · 448 games57% · 35 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 71%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2