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The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
87%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 15 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 15 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Abed · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 11 games
73%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 10 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
90%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 27 games
78%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 18 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
76%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 16 games
81%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 15 games
60%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
80%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
miCKe · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
745 picks · 468 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
597 picks · 531 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
571 picks · 441 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
541 picks · 582 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 572 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
397 picks · 248 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
385 picks · 597 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
381 picks · 353 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 80%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:31
Shopify Rebellion 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
48% · 493 games51% · 311 games
LinamiCKe
Lina
Marci
MarciArteezy
51% · 498 games52% · 198 games
Timbersawzai
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
54% · 328 games51% · 320 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
43% · 317 games48% · 884 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
52% · 599 games49% · 522 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct28:22
Shopify Rebellion 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArteezy
48% · 243 games48% · 210 games
MorphlingNisha
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAbed
52% · 249 games43% · 411 games
Snapfirezai
Snapfire
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
56% · 242 games48% · 118 games
Drow RangermiCKe
Drow Ranger
Rubick
RubickFly
51% · 565 games48% · 792 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
50% · 547 games55% · 315 games
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 71%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2