DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
Dawnbreaker
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Team Liquid
Vengeful Spirit
iNSaNiA · 19 games
Lunasignature
miCKe · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 13 games
Muerta
Boxi · 12 games
Rubick
Boxi · 12 games
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 11 games
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 10 games
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
371 picks · 324 bans
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 476 bans
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 315 bans
Pangolier
274 picks · 393 bans
Mars
263 picks · 358 bans
Techies
263 picks · 180 bans
Hoodwink
259 picks · 143 bans
Magnus
251 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total57% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:22
Shopify Rebellion 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaArteezy
SlarkmiCKe
LycanSabeRLight-
PangolierNisha
PuckYopaj
Dark Seer33
RubickThiolicor
BatriderBoxi
56% · 176 games
MiranaiNSaNiA
Game 2prediction missed16:34
Shopify Rebellion 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenArteezy
Doom33
ViperYopaj
DazzleNisha
KunkkaSabeRLight-
Monkey KingmiCKe
Shadow DemonThiolicor
BatriderBoxi
45% · 105 games
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2