ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
Abed · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fly · 8 games
Muertasignature
Arteezy · 7 games
Sven
Arteezy · 7 games
TiltedBoys
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Dark Willow
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Hoodwink
bgod · 1 game
Lion
bgod · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Techies
bgod · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
309 picks · 451 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 413 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 445 bans
Lion
239 picks · 218 bans
Vengeful Spirit
238 picks · 129 bans
Nature's Prophet
231 picks · 663 bans
Tusk
230 picks · 216 bans
Pangolier
228 picks · 319 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:7
Shopify Rebellion 76%TiltedBoys 24%
The model gave 76% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 14:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinArteezy
Lionbgod
ViperYopaj
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
HoodwinkThiolicor
Game 2prediction correct25:13
Shopify Rebellion 77%TiltedBoys 23%
The model gave 77% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 19:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorSabeRLight-
Hoodwinkbgod
WindrangerArteezy
PuckYopaj
TinyThiolicor
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 89%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2