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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 12 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Abed · 11 games
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 9 games
78%
Sven
Svensignature
Fly · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
88%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 7 games
71%
Marci
Marcisignature
Cr1t- · 7 games
71%

TSM

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 10 games
40%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 7 games
57%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
DuBu · 7 games
71%
Chen
Chen
DuBu · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
DuBu · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
400 picks · 389 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
359 picks · 360 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
344 picks · 234 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
285 picks · 291 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
221 picks · 270 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
216 picks · 115 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 148 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
193 picks · 526 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 80%
Hero pool strength58% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:31
Shopify Rebellion 54%TSM 46%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by TSM in 48:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidArteezy
47% · 191 game51% · 175 games
LinaTimado
Lina
Tusk
TuskAbed
49% · 393 games61% · 109 games
Visagekasane
Visage
Magnus
MagnusSabeRLight-
43% · 66 games49% · 215 games
Death Prophetbryle-
Death Prophet
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
49% · 183 games50% · 473 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
46% · 315 games54% · 176 games
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed18:21
Shopify Rebellion 54%TSM 46%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by TSM in 34:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArteezy
42% · 88 games50% · 181 game
LinaTimado
Lina
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
54% · 60 games55% · 117 games
Storm Spiritbryle-
Storm Spirit
Invoker
InvokerAbed
49% · 104 games50% · 54 games
Centaur Warrunnerkasane
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaFly
50% · 161 game47% · 79 games
PugnaAri
Pugna
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
51% · 189 games52% · 171 game
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 60%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2